The floor is the lowest of the model's lines. It is not a guarantee and not a support level in the trading sense. It is a statistic: the 1st percentile of all daily deviations from the trend since 1 January 2015. Expressed as a multiple, the floor sits at ×0.50 of the trend value on every day.

Floor values by year

DateFloorTrend
1 January 2026$52,159$104,986
1 January 2027$72,779$146,489
1 January 2028$99,737$200,750
1 January 2029$134,596$270,915
1 January 2030$178,860$360,010
1 January 2031$234,559$472,119
1 January 2032$303,918$611,726
1 January 2033$389,730$784,447
1 January 2034$494,394$995,115
1 January 2035$621,344$1,250,640
1 January 2036$774,188$1,558,284
1 January 2037$957,493$1,927,239
1 January 2038$1,174,734$2,364,502
1 January 2039$1,431,312$2,880,940
1 January 2040$1,732,673$3,487,519

When Bitcoin traded below the floor

Since 2015 the daily close was below the floor on 1.0% of 4,305 days. The episodes, from the daily data:

  • Aug 2015 – Oct 2015: lowest at ×0.48 of trend
  • Nov 2022 – Jan 2023: lowest at ×0.49 of trend
  • Jun 2026 – Aug 2026: lowest at ×0.47 of trend

Each episode came after a long bear market and was followed by a return into the corridor. That is the historical pattern; it does not rule out a deeper or longer breach in the future.

Why the floor rises more slowly each year

Like the trend, the floor follows a power of the network's age. Each additional year is a smaller relative step for an older network, so the yearly percentage increase of the floor declines over time, while its dollar increase keeps growing.

Note: Model values, not a forecast and not investment advice. The model describes the corridor Bitcoin has traded in; it does not predict any single day.

Open the live model →

More guides

This site and its domains are part of the Bitcoin Asset Group portfolio. Make an offer