The Bitcoin power law fits a straight line through Bitcoin's price history on a log-log chart: the logarithm of price against the logarithm of days since the genesis block. Extending that line gives model values for any future date. For 2030 the current fit gives the values below. They describe where the long-term corridor runs if the pattern of the last 15 years continues — not where the price will be.

Model values for 2030

DateFloorLower bandTrendUpper bandCeiling
1 January 2030$178,860$213,115$360,010$873,603$1,699,863
1 April 2030$191,451$228,117$385,352$935,099$1,819,524
1 July 2030$204,920$244,165$412,461$1,000,883$1,947,526
1 October 2030$219,325$261,329$441,456$1,071,242$2,084,430
31 December 2030$234,389$279,278$471,777$1,144,818$2,227,596

Over 2030 the trend line rises from $360,010 to $471,777, a gain of +31%. The floor on 1 January 2030 is $178,860; the ceiling $1,699,863.

From today's price to the 2030 trend

On 14 October 2026 Bitcoin closed at $81,576. To reach the trend value of 1 January 2030 from there, the price would have to rise by +59% a year on average. Whether that happens depends on adoption, liquidity and the market cycle — factors the model does not contain.

How to read these numbers

  • Trend is the fitted line itself. Since 2015 the price has spent about as much time above it as below it.
  • Floor and ceiling are the 1st and 99th percentile of the deviation from trend since 2015. The price was below the floor on about 1% of days and above the ceiling on about 1%.
  • Lower and upper band mark the 10th and 90th percentile.

Every new day of data refits the model slightly, so these values move a little with each update. The live model recalculates them for any date and in euros as well.

Note: Model values, not a forecast and not investment advice. The model describes the corridor Bitcoin has traded in; it does not predict any single day.

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